Tropical Depression Four's path shifted west slightly Friday night, slowing its timeline and prompting a hurricane watch along a portion of Florida's Gulf Coast.
The National Hurricane Center's latest advisory puts the storm about 170 miles south of Key West as it continues to move west-northwest at about 16 mph.
The majority of Florida is still under a state of emergency after Gov. Ron DeSantis made the declaration on Thursday.
Previous paths for Tropical Depression Four put a potential landfall somewhere along the coast of Florida's Big Bend on Sunday, but the storm's path has since shifted. Now, the eye of what is likely to become Tropical Storm Debby later today will make landfall sometime between early Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
To become a tropical storm, sustained winds must reach 39 mph. The storm has maintained sustained winds of 30 mph since Friday.
What is Jacksonville's situation with the latest storm?
Saturday morning the National Weather Service in Jacksonville said it likely will become Debby as it tracks northward off Florida’s west coast into Saturday night. Local rainfall will increase Sunday with deteriorating conditions Sunday night into Monday.
The projected impacts Sunday through Tuesday in Northeast Florida and Southeast Georgia are the potential for flooding, tropical storm force winds and dangerous marine and surf zone conditions.
Saturday night there is a chance of showers and thunderstorms into the early morning.The forecast says it will be mostly cloudy with a low of around 78 degrees. There will be southeast winds from 6 to 11 mph with gusts as high as 16 mph. The chance of rain is 30%.
Sunday, there will be showers and thunderstorms with most before 5 p.m. and potentially overnight. The high temperature will be about 88 degrees. The wind will be southeast at about 8 mph to 14 mph with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of rain is 90%, with new rainfall amounts possibly between three-quarters and an inch.
Monday, showers are likely and thunderstorms are possible throughout the day. The high temperature is expected to be about 88. It will be breezy, with a southwest wind of around 17 mph with gusts as high as 26 mph. The chance of rain is 90%.
Tuesday is projected to be mostly sunny, with a high near 92 degrees and breezy. But there is a 70% chance of rain including showers and thunderstorms throughout the day.
What is Gov. Ron DeSantis' response to Tropical Storm Debby?
Gov. Ron DeSantis Friday activated the state's Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee, as well as the Florida National Guard and Florida State Guard ahead of theGulf weather systempredicted for Florida that could becomeTropical Storm Debby.
The governor declared astate of emergencyfor the majority of Florida — including Duval, Baker, Clay, Flagler, Nassau, Putnam and St. Johns counties — allowing state officials "to make critical resources available to communities ahead of any potential areas that the storm may impact," the Governor's Office said.
How is Jacksonville preparing for Tropical Storm Debby?
The Duval County Emergency Operations Center has partially activated to ensure continued coordination of storm preparation, response and stakeholders, the city said Saturday afternoon."This allows us to bring together key agencies and personnel to streamline communication, ensure rapid deployment of resources and address any needs quickly."
First responder response teams are on standby, and the Public Works Department continues to clear drainage systems in low-lying areas. The Fire and Rescue Department, Sheriff’s Office, JEA and Public Works also stand ready to mobilize and respond as needed as the tropical system approaches, the city said.
Currently there are not any planned evacuation orders, shelter openings or schedule changes for city of Jacksonville offices, the Jacksonville Transportation Authority or Duval County Public Schools.They will continue to monitor the storm forecast and provide updates to the public.
How is St. Johns County preparing for Tropical Storm Debby?
Saturday, St. Johns Countyissued a local state of emergency effective at 8 a.m.
The county said it will provide free sandbags at the auxiliary parking lot of the Solomon Calhoun Community Center, located at 1300 Duval St., St. Augustine, from 8 a.m. to noon Sunday. The sand and bags will be provided free of charge. The public must provide their own transportation and shovels and will be responsible for filling their own bags. There is a maximum allocation of 20 bags per person. A sandbag typically weighs about 30 pounds.
Where is Tropical Depression Four?
- Location: 75 miles south of Varadero, Cuba; 170 miles south-southeast of Key West
- Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 16 mph
- Next advisory: 11 a.m. Aug. 3
Tropical Depression Four path
When will Tropical Depression Four strengthen into Tropical Storm Debby?
The NHC expects that Tropical Depression Four will become Tropical Storm Debby later today, and continue strengthening in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through the weekend.
How much the storm strengthens will depend on how long it spends over the Gulf of Mexico's warm waters.
Could Tropical Storm Debby become a hurricane?
While it's not currently expected to strengthen into a hurricane, the chance isn't completely off the table. If Tropical Depression Four stalls offshore, it could rapidly intensify and become a strong tropical storm or a hurricane.
"It is possible if the feature bumps along the Florida Peninsula's west coast and interacts with the land, strengthening may be limited," AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "A quick landfall over the southwest part of the Florida Peninsula would tend to really limit the time spent over the Gulf and limit the strengthening process.
The storm's new path leads it down DaSilva's second scenario.
"However, if the feature stays more offshore until Sunday evening or night and moves in along the upper Gulf coast of Florida, it may have time to quickly ramp up and become a strong tropical storm or hurricane before pushing inland over northern Florida," DaSilva warned.
Spaghetti models: Latest forecasts on where Tropical Depression Four could make Florida landfall
Hurricane, tropical storm watches and warnings issued for Florida
A hurricane watch is in effect for:
- Aucilla River to Yankeetown
A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
A tropical storm warning is in effect for:
- The Dry Tortugas
- West coast of the Florida peninsula from south of Yankeetown to East Cape Sable
A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A tropical storm watch is in effect for:
- The Florida Keys south of the Channel 5 Bridge
- West of the Aucilla River to the Ochlockonee River
A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
A storm surge watch is in effect for:
- Bonita Beach northward to the Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor
A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
Potential impacts from Potential Tropical Cyclone Four
WINDS: Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area by Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible earlier on Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward over the warning areas beginning later today and continuing through Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in the Florida Keys later today or tonight and in the Florida Panhandle by late Sunday.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Chassahowitzka, FL to Aucilla River, FL...3-5 feet
- Bonita Beach, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...2-4 feet
- Tampa Bay...2-4 feet
- Charlotte Harbor...2-4 feet
RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Four is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches, with maximum rainfall totals up to 15 inches, across portions of Florida and along the Southeast U.S. coast this weekend through Thursday morning. This rainfall may result in areas of locally considerable flash and urban flooding, with isolated river flooding possible.
For Cuba, rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, with localized higher amounts, will be possible through today. This may result in isolated to scattered areas of flooding.
TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible across the Florida Keys and the western Florida Peninsula tonight through Sunday morning.
SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to affect much of the Gulf coast of Florida tonight through Monday and along the Southeast U.S. coast early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
Key messages on what Florida can expect from tropical cyclone
- Heavy rainfall may result in locally considerable flash and urban flooding across portions of Florida and the coastal areas of the Southeast U.S. this weekend through Wednesday. Isolated river flooding will also be possible.
- A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of west-central Florida and the Big Bend region, where hurricane conditions are possible late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are expected farther south along Florida's west coast, including the Tampa Bay area, and across the Dry Tortugas where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect.
- There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from storm surge along portions of the west coast of Florida from Bonita Beach to Aucilla River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
- Impacts from storm surge, strong winds, and heavy rains are possible elsewhere in Florida and along the southeast coast of the United States from Georgia to North Carolina through the middle of next week, and interests in those areas should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will likely be required later today.
